Kalle reflects on how much cold-steel denial can endure

Takeaway for leaders at all levels everywhere

The evidence is there; what remains is the courage to see both the fast-advancing threats and the emerging opportunities—and the skills to act.

In 8 previous reflections, I have explored the science behind (i) organizations’ vulnerability to fuel dependence; (ii) how party politics could do much better in this regard, for instance through (iii) strategic tax shifts; (iv) how improved leadership everywhere could include increased investment in diplomacy; (v) silo-thinking and the dangerous delays it creates when inevitable paradigm shifts knock on the door. All fuels are doomed in a scalable future, including (vi) nuclear power, (vii) fusion power, and (viii) biofuels. Fuels are not competitive in any dimension—neither in scalability, safety, speed of implementation, regional self-reliance, nor in cost.

In more detail

I am familiar with the validated and inevitable theory underpinning these reflections, based on the laws of nature, for example, those that render perpetual motion machines impossible. I also know, from empirical and hands-on experience, how strategically competent organizations have undertaken wise measures in time to avoid the worst repercussions of fuel dependence, while improving their bottom lines through investments in scalable energy innovations based on freely available energy flows. These are impossible to compete with using fuel-dependent systems, not least economically. However, strategically skillful organizations that act in anticipation of the inevitable are still too few for any substantial geopolitical shift to occur.

As a result, civilization’s vulnerability to fuel dependence is now being allowed to unfold in full force. This is rooted in past decisions based on flawed organizational designs, and these decisions are now manifesting as conflicts, such as the wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. In both cases, fuels play an essential role—not only as underlying drivers of conflict, but also as strategic targets once wars are underway. The repercussions are unavoidable and widespread, for instance rapidly spreading harms to the global economy and geopolitical relations.

Still, I can only bear personal witness to how the Swedish discourse continues to fall short on all 8 aspects of fuel dependence. In my home country, citizens see the same reality unfold yet interpret it differently. Or not at all. Consequently, a growing sense of unease and even despair arises as these shortcomings are repeatedly played out—in press conferences, political debates, morning TV shows, and interviews with economists, industrialists, and military alike. Rather than learning from history to improve across the board, the focus remains on what each silo can do immediately and in isolation, to curb their particular symptoms. So, the blinders remain firmly in place—yes, even within silos.

An example is when representatives of the Swedish military or Ministry of Defense—without recent experience of war—are interviewed about increasing geopolitical tensions. They rarely refer to military wisdom on how to help society at large prevail without war. This strategic insight goes far back in history—for instance, to the Chinese general Sun Zi, who lived 2,500 years ago.

Or consider this modern reflection:
“Civilians are often more bloodthirsty than the military, who recognize that they themselves may be killed if war breaks out. For that reason, warriors are often more inclined toward diplomacy than civilians.”
— Ambassador Chas Freeman, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1FnZp1N5po)

True diplomacy—a strong field of Swedish expertise since the 19th century—always begins by examining one’s own society’s role in a conflict, not with the demonization of others.

Want to go deeper into the ABCD-in-Funnel Operative System already now? You have three complementary ways to explore it:

1.Scientific foundation

Access the peer‑reviewed research directly:
doi.org/10.1002/sd.3357

2. A practical overview

For a more accessible introduction of the ‘ABCD-in-Funnel’ Operative system, here is a brief outline of its hands‑on characteristics:

• Systemic– it covers all essential aspects of challenges and opportunities.
The Funnel metaphor provides the scientifically grounded lens for this:

Inward‑leaning funnel wall denotes that all key societal systems—energy, forestry, agriculture, fisheries, material use, infrastructure, transport, and human resources—are progressively degrading. This is scientifically validated, independent of value systems or beliefs.

Funnel opening (Sustainability) is operationally defined through robust boundary conditions for redesigning anything. All societal systems above can be modelled and coordinated to operate within these conditions—together. Otherwise, one problem will automatically be solved by inventing another.

• Systematic – enables structured, stepwise action processes.
The ABCD process provides a SWAT-like logic, ensuring that all critical elements are addressed in a coherent sequence—from goals modelled within the boundary conditions (A), through current challenges and assets in that context (B), possible measures and investments (C) to go from B to A, and finally to prioritized, stepwise action by choosing such ideas from C that balances (i) pace of progress with (ii) return on investment (D).

• Strategic – enables improved bottom lines from the start.

The D-step will increase the likelihood of strong outcomes and return on investment from the outset and regardless of what others do.

Cross-reading your ABCD results with applications/apps such as the UN SDGs, Circular Economy frameworks, Science Based Targets, Reporting directives, or other apps that each cover parts of the strategic challenge may generate additional ideas to place under your A, B, C, and D respectively. However, it does not work the other way around—the Operative System uniquely ensures that all essential aspects are coherently covered within a structured, strategic framework.

3. Explore and apply

Visithttps://www.stepwise.global

Explore:

…to see how the Operative System helps you assess complex topics without losing systemic, systematic, or strategic perspective.