Kalle reflects on how to skip the crazy analogy of Prisoner’s Dilemma

“Prisoner’s Dilemma” is something I have touched upon before and discussed in a scientific article together with Professor Göran Broman [1]. It is based on interesting game theory but is grossly misleading for sustainable development. Nevertheless, it has a huge impact on all those disappointing summits and climate meetings. As if anything but disappointments were to be expected.

More in detail: The delusion underpins a question in the minds of not entirely competent investors: “If I chose the high road, how do I know that others will follow? If I can’t rely on that, I’ll be left alone ‘holding the bag’ of expenses my competitors won’t have.” The solution to the dilemma would be for politicians to change the regulatory systems first so that all have to do it. Which is, of course, a crazy thought from the beginning. What would a geopolitical super-decision look like, mighty of enforcing a global “straitjacket” onto all Nations? A straitjacket of laws, regulations, taxes, and other methods of enforcement to open up a “safe space” for planetary damage . A thought that naturally ends with disappointments each time it is attempted in national negotiations. Besides this, most nations are not Prisoners but free to cooperate. What we need now is a competent strategic leadership launching self-beneficial measures in public and private sectors, paving the way for improved geopolitical politics. The horse before the cart. Which is what summits should be all about instead of fruitless efforts to law-enforcing our way out of some made-up dilemma we have created and mentally locked ourselves into.

Already today’s Summit invitations to discuss “who is to blame, what are the costs and who should pay them” could instead look like this:

“Dear Heads of State,

Welcome to a new and radically changed summit on sustainability and climate. A clever systematic change, towards a robust operational definition of systemic sustainability is always a profitable story, also in developing countries and from upfront. So, we should help each other geopolitically to achieve maximum joint profitability faster. At the meeting, we will discuss how cooperative opportunities, and improved ROI can be adapted and distributed according to your respective national conditions, resources, and ability. So, study what you need on the FSSD Global homepage and come better prepared for your next and radically more effective summit.”

[1] Prisoners’ dilemma misleads business and policy making

Karl-Henrik Robert, Göran Broman Journal of Cleaner Production 140 (2017) 10-16